'From blitzkrieg to blitzscaling: Assessing the impact of venture capital dynamics on military norms' by Elke Schwarz in (2025) Finance and Society comments
We are in the midst of a military AI bonanza. At security and defence trade fairs, artificial intelligence (AI) is presented as the inevitable and indispensable technology that will, with little doubt, determine the future of a state and its military effectiveness. Not least since Putin declared in 2017 that those who dominate in AI will ‘be the ruler of the world’ (Vincent, 2017) has military AI garnered the attention of policymakers, military strategists, and technology companies with a keen eye for an opportunity. AI not only serves a pathway towards more autonomy and lethality for weapon systems but is also seen in defence and technology circles as the key to winning any future war. For a number of years now the credo within the US defence sphere has been: ‘the only way […] to stay competitive in a new warfighting environment is to ensure that [the US] uses the most potent weapon available: technology, and more specifically software’ (Mulchandani and Shanahan, 2022: 19). This newly focused attention on AI is reflected in US military spending. Between 2022 and 2023, federal contracts for military AI have nearly tripled, with a potential increase in the value of these contracts by 1,200% (Larson et al., 2024). With defence budgets growing across the globe, the prospects for new military software-oriented startups to capture a share of an enormously lucrative market are better than ever. And where startups are active, venture capital (VC) is usually not far.
With its recent turn towards US military business and technologies, venture capital is, in many ways, coming back full circle to its roots. Modern military innovation, Silicon Valley, and venture capital all share original DNA. Early venture capital endeavours in the 1940s were motivated by ‘investing in and inventing solutions that would help soldiers perform better in battle’ (Vardan et al., 2020). With an early concentration of technology firms in Palo Alto emerging in the 1950s, venture capital increasingly invested in this region during this time, ‘owed much to the intersection of […] direct and indirect benefits from universities, government military expenditure as a boost to high-tech, and a special legal, cultural, and physical climate’ (Nicholas, 2019: 184). Similarly, the digital landscape itself, as we know it today, has its roots in military visions and requisitions. Norbert Wiener’s innovations in communications theory were harnessed for military missile technology in the 1950s, the grandfathers of AI almost all worked on mid-century military projects, and, of course, the Internet itself began as a military project, then named ARPANET, fostered by Pentagon requirements. And for much of Silicon Valley’s early history, until the 1990s, the region’s biggest single employer was a prominent weapons company: Lockheed Missiles and Space, today known as Lockheed Martin (Gonzalez, 2024: 4). During the boom in commercial digital technologies in the 1990s and early 2000s, Silicon Valley and VCs turned their backs on defence projects and capitalised on outsized profits from the civilian use of Silicon Valley products. During this period, the defence market was considered mature and consolidated, dominated by a handful of key industry players, the so-called ‘primes’, who held a firm grip on the defence market and associated procurement processes.
This made VC investment in the defence sector unattractive for a good three decades, not least because the gains that could be made in a government environment were no match for the extraordinary gains VCs were able to make in the commercial realm. Moreover, investing in matters of war and conflict was, for many investors, too high of a moral risk and associated with too steep of a reputational cost, with investors ‘fearful of falling foul of environmental, social, and governance rules’ (Bradshaw and Pfeifer, 2024). These animosities began to fade in the mid-2010s through the confluence of a number of likely factors: the extraordinary yields from the first cycle of technology investments in the early 2000s needed new investment opportunities, the inclusion of more and more software products for defence infrastructures normalised the dual-useFootnote 2 aspect of emerging technologies and with advances made in software and hardware innovation, Silicon Valley companies had set their eyes on ‘overturning established industry structures’ (Andreessen, 2011), and the launch of a number of innovation-focused defence programmes in the United States facilitated the forging of much closer ties between the Pentagon and Silicon Valley specifically and between defence and the world of venture capital more broadly. Emboldened by the astounding financial possibilities of software-for-defence products, the VC sector has now once more rekindled its fraternity with the defence sector, but with an inverted hierarchy. It is not the government organisations that dictate the pace and requisitions for innovation, but rather, it is the technology industry and its associated financiers that seek to ‘reengineer […] the Pentagon’s DNA for a new era’ (Smith and Ulevich, 2023).
In recent years, the market opportunities for VC funding in this sector have accelerated, reflected in what Deputy Defence Secretary Kathleen Hicks called a ‘surge in US defence tech focused startups, scale-ups and private and venture capital’ with ‘some 2,000 deals, investing 100 billion [US] dollars since 2021’ (Hicks, 2024). From 2019 to 2022, VC money injected into military technology startups in the United States alone more than doubled (Kinder, 2023), and since 2021, the defence technology startup sector has been injected with nearly US$130 billion (MacColl, 2024). Significant actors in the VC defence space include government-affiliated organisations, like the Defence Innovation Experimental Unit (DIUx, now DIU), but also key players from the technology industry with extraordinary financial power who are hedging their bets in the defence sector – among them Eric Schmidt (formerly Google), Peter Thiel (PayPal and Palantir), and Marc Andreessen (Netscape), and their respective VC firms. There are, of course, many others. The DIU, launched in 2015 by then-Defence Secretary Ash Carter with the aim to provide funding for small military startups (Gonzalez, 2024: 3) played a crucial role in changing the defence landscape to focus much more on software products. However, it is the private VC actors who have now firmly set their eyes on shifting the defence finance ecology in their interest and who are accelerating the advancements VC financing makes in the defence space, prompting some of the defence primes to start up their own VC funds, such as Lockheed Martin Ventures and RTX Ventures (Gonzalez, 2024: 18).
VC adheres to a different logic than other financial instruments in the defence sector. The aim for VC firms is to make extraordinary returns for investors within a 10-year window, by betting on a high-risk, high-reward strategy and they do so by investing in companies that do not yet have an established market position but have high-growth potential. VC funders often take a hands-on approach to their investees, and once VCs have identified potentially high-growth startups, they must ‘back them with every resource’ to achieve the desired success (Thiel and Masters, 2014: 86). The primary product of the defence VC strategy is not a defence technology as such, but financial returns achieved through growth (Howard, 2024: 91). In short, the VC wager is one in which existing wealth is to be multiplied through the anticipation of significant growth, invigorated by a shallow Schumpeterianism – destruction with the anticipation of creating capital gains through growth at all costs (Kenney and Zysman, 2019: 43). Anticipation is the operative term here. VC aims are firmly rooted in future-oriented expectations of possibility, which they help force into being.
This affects the way VC firms manifest their interests in relation to both the startups and the markets. It incentivises startups to adopt a winner-takes-all mentality, which is often accompanied by overpromising and embracing risk, mistakes, and errors in the pursuit of scaling up rapidly. Moreover, in order to realise VC interests, a targeted market must align with their timelines and propositions or else be made to align if it is not already so aligned. In other words, the old ways of defence must be disrupted in order to accommodate new players with more lofty ambitions. The disruption of any market does, however, come at a cost to many of its multiple stakeholders.
Since VCs have re-discovered the defence sector, discourses and practices about defence acquisition, defence regulation, the global threat landscape, and relevant defence technologies for future wars have begun to change. Increasingly, prominent visions for war and security come to mirror the logic and priorities of Silicon Valley industries and its products, and the defence VC sector is exerting significant influence to help shape defence in the image of Silicon Valley itself. By all accounts, this seems to bear fruit – in an event organised by Andreessen Horowitz, a prominent VC company investing in AI-enabled weapon systems, Deputy Defense Secretary Hicks conjures up one of Silicon Valley’s most iconic mottos in closing her American Dynamism keynote: ‘yes, moving fast and breaking things is necessary to win wars’ (Hicks, 2024) – the only thing that must never be broken is the law and the US Constitution.
In this article, I argue that the logic of VC funding and its specific financial aims exerts not only a significant power in shaping the companies and the products supported through VC funding but that this logic needs a market that accommodates the fundamental parameters of VC profit making and that this move bears significant challenges for a sector that deals with matters of life and death. VC interests enact their priorities through a mix of lobbying, legislative tools, and mythmaking, which in turn moulds the defence sector to its needs. This mandate for structural and cultural change has consequences. In the context of defence, the cost of disruption is born not only by the businesses that traditionally dominate a market but by those communities and socio-political stakeholders that are affected by the military and its practices, including those caught in the crosshairs of new, VC-backed technologies. In short, I argue that the influx of VC money in the defence sector shapes both military processes and military visions and these changes, while bearing financial fruit for investors, have potentially significant impacts on matters of peace and security. There is a substantial, and growing, literature on the relationship between VC logics and digitally shaped economies and the ensuing business practices (see, e.g. Langley and Leyshon, 2017; Cooiman, 2024; Kampmann, 2024; Howard, 2024; Kenney and Zysman, 2019, among others), but, with a few exceptions (such as Gonzalez, 2024; Marshall, 2023; Brenes and Hartung, 2024), this dynamic remains underexplored in its effects on the military domain. This is what I turn my attention to here.