09 August 2010

don't buy your alfoil beanies just yet

A point of reference for considering 'the big change in 2012' questioned in the preceding post is provided by 'The 2012 Phenomenon New Age Appropriation of an Ancient Mayan Calendar' by Robert Sitler in 9(3) Nova Religio: The Journal of Alternative and Emergent Religions (2006) 24–38.

Sitler comments that -
As the 2012 winter solstice date approaches, there will be increasing attention given to determining its true significance among those in the New Age movement. In the context of worldwide environmental degradation and perceived societal degeneration, the possibility of global civilization’s collapse seems ever more real, and the prospect of a revolution in human consciousness becomes more attractive for many. The Y2K phenomenon attracted the attention of millions around the world even though, in retrospect, the concerns about global digital collapse that reached international dimensions proved baseless. Similarly, public interest in 2012 does not depend on the date having any substantive significance beyond marking a cyclical change in an ancient calendar. The date’s presumed connection to an ancient Amerindian civilization that some in the New Age assume to have been more enlightened than our own gives 2012 an attractive power that may eventually even outstrip that of the Y2K non-event. New Age teachers and writers who are most able to establish the authenticity of their ties to the Mayan world increase their chances of success in the spiritual marketplace. Their self-promoting publicity will generate further interest in the significance of 2012 and, with time, the sheer volume of books, Internet sites, and other offshoots of the phenomenon will establish an undeserved credibility for the importance of the date among a segment of the public with little interest in verifying the authenticity of many of the New Age teachers’ claims. Those who are less credulous may find John Jenkins’ writings on the subject to be utterly convincing without recognizing their nonconclusive nature. ...

Only recently, a man in India believed by some to be Kalki [ie Bhagavan, the guru whose intuitions - as noted in the preceding post - are attuned to the intuitions and research of Ervin Laszlo], the Kali Yuga's incarnation of Lord Vishnu, predicted the beginning of a new stage in human consciousness beginning in the year 2012. Along with this self-proclaimed avatar, a growing number of people, especially some with a New Age orientation, are convinced that humanity will soon undergo a fundamental transformation in its earthly voyage. Many of the self-proclaimed leaders of the 2012 movement have successfully appropriated this date from an ancient Mayan calendar by explicitly linking themselves to the living Mayan world. They have done so with the help of a small group of Maya men who lend an air of indigenous authenticity to their 2012 teachings but who lack a substantial base in their own cultural heritage. In doing so, 2012 proponents have transformed belief in the global significance of the December 21 date into a snowballing phenomenon that no amount of evidence can constrain. Several years remain before completion of the thirteenth b’ak’tun and of the most recent Great Cycle, and interest in the 2012 date is already strong and developing rapidly. The question of whether there is any underlying substance to the 2012 date has become meaningless as its power as a self-validating set of ideas establishes a reality of its own among believers who have no interest in examining the authenticity of those beliefs. Thus, beliefs in the global significance of 2012 date will persist and gain momentum until the dawn of that year's winter solstice when all can experience for themselves whether the day brings a New Dawn for humanity or just another Friday morning.
Believers in the truth of parapsychology might usefully turn to James Alcock's modest 'Give the Null Hypothesis a Chance: Reasons to Remain Doubtful about the Existence of Psi' in 10(6/7) Journal of Consciousness Studies (2003) 29–50.

Despite the enthusiasm of parapsychologists such as Rhine, Targ, Radin, Grof and Puthoff, supposed phenomena such as 'ghosts', 'precognition', 'remote healing', 'telepathy', 'poltergeists', 'reincarnation' and 'telekinesis' have not been scientifically proven. There is little, if any, reason to believe that they will be proven in the near future, irrespective of whether the enthusiasts refer to quantum mechanics or otherwise.

Alcock comments that -
I have yet to find any empirical evidence that persuades me that it is likely that paranormal phenomena actually exist. Moreover, I am well aware of just how often our brains can mislead us, and can lead us to believe that we have had a paranormal experience even when no such thing has happened. Indeed, even if there is no such thing as a paranormal phenomenon, human information processing works in such a way that we are all likely from time to time to have experiences that seem for all the world to be paranormal. For me as a psychologist, these experiences themselves — the reports of extrasensory perception and the like — are fascinating in their own right, even if, as I presume, they are not paranormal, for they can tell us a great deal about how our brains work and about our beliefs and needs and expectations, if we are willing to listen.
Alcock goes on to state that -
That quintessential investigator Sherlock Holmes once opined: 'It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.' This is also good advice when it comes to theorizing in parapsychology. The database does not at this time justify the development of explanatory theory, for, as I have discussed above, it is far from clear that there is anything to explain.
From a legal perspective Alcock's comments are a useful caution. Faith has in the past led people to believe in witches, vampires, werewolves and demonic possession. The consequences of that belief were often distinctly unpleasant. Sincerity is not always synonymous with virtue or with common sense.