08 July 2011

Show me the money

The new 12 page NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics & Research (BOCSAR) report [PDF] by Jacqueline Fitzgerald & Suzanne Poynton on The changing nature of objects stolen in household burglaries indicates that the market for stolen goods has shifted over the past decade toward cash and easily disposed-of items. The overall incidence of household burglary (on the basis of incidents reported to the NSW police) has fallen by 50% since 2001.

In 2008/09, one in 33 NSW households experienced a break-in. In 61% of those incidents something was stolen. The authors comment that -
Crime victimisation surveys tell us that, unlike many offences, household burglary has a high reporting rate with three in four victims reporting the incident to police (ABS, 2010). This indicates that incidents reported to police are a large sample of all incidents and therefore probably a reasonable indication of the offence as a whole. It is also probable, however, that the three quarters of incidents which are reported to police are slanted towards the more serious and are more likely to include incidents where something was stolen.
During the decade the theft of cash increased from 23% of all home burglaries to 31%. Jewellery was stolen in around 1 in 5 burglaries.

The relative frequency with which a laptop computer, a wallet/handbag/purse or keys were stolen in burglaries also increased. There have been falls in the proportion of burglaries involving theft of powered garden equipment, video and DVD players, stereos, video cameras, electrical appliances and power tools. Theft of mobile phones is up (to 14.5%); theft of identification documents/cards increased from 11.3% to 11.6%.

Lawn mowers and other powered garden equipment were the 13th most stolen object type in 2001 with a lawn mower, brush cutter, edge trimmer or similar object being stolen in 8% of burglaries. In 2010 these objects had fallen to the 31st most stolen object type and were stolen in only 3% of burglaries.

The authors note that -
Home burglary is not uniformly distributed across the State. Not only does NSW have areas with high and low rates of burglary, the objects stolen differ across regions. ...

The highest rates of household burglary are recorded in the Far West and North Western regions of NSW followed by the Northern part of the State, the Central West, the Mid-North Coast and Murray Statistical Divisions. The lowest rates are in the Northern Beaches in Sydney, Central Northern Sydney and St George/Sutherland followed by Lower Northern Sydney and the South Eastern part of NSW.

With the exception of Murray Statistical Division, cash was the most commonly stolen item in all the major regions in NSW. Even so, however, it ranged in frequency from being stolen in 42% of burglaries in the Far West to 24% in Murrumbidgee Statistical Division. Interestingly, within the 14 Statistical Subdivisions of Sydney there were seven where something other than cash was the most commonly stolen object. The alternative objects were laptop computers (the most commonly stolen objects in Inner Sydney, Eastern Suburbs, Outer South Western Sydney and Blacktown) and jewellery (the most commonly stolen objects in Fairfield-Liverpool, Central Western Sydney and Central Northern Sydney). In Inner Sydney and the Eastern Suburbs a laptop was stolen in nearly half of all household burglaries. A few areas reported the frequent theft of items less commonly stolen elsewhere. These included power tools in South Eastern NSW (the fifth most commonly stolen object there but only the 19th most stolen item in NSW).
The authors conclude that -
Burglars appear now to be more interested in objects which have intrinsic value or which can be very readily disposed of. The rising popularity of cash (stolen in 31% of incidents in 2010 compared with 23% in 2001) could be due to convenience as it does not have to be on-sold. Similarly, jewellery has remained popular (stolen in 22% of incidents in 2001 and 23% of incidents in 2010) perhaps because of the intrinsic value of gold and gems, which is quite separate to the aesthetic taste of consumers. Indeed, capitalising on the current record high price for gold, in recent years there has been a large increase in outlets offering ‘cash for gold’ at shopping centres and on television. Note, however that due to the fall in the number of break-ins, there were substantially fewer thefts of jewellery in 2010 than in 2001 (in 2001 jewellery was stolen in 10,308 break-ins compared with 5,649 in 2010). ...

A possible reason why the objects targeted in burglary incidents have changed is due to changes in the market for stolen goods. Research conducted by BOCSAR in 1998 found that, at that time, burglars could receive a relatively good price for electrical goods and tools. At that time burglars reported that they could swap a $400 VCR player for $130 worth of drugs (Stevenson & Forsythe, 1998).

It is possible that burglars can no longer achieve such a good return on stolen consumer goods for the following reasons:
• the retail price of electronic goods, tools and other items have fallen so they can now be purchased new very cheaply from legitimate retailers;
• security in many devices such as mobile phones mean that they cannot just be plugged in and used;
• increased economic prosperity and community attitudes may mean that second hand goods are less desirable or attractive to the public;
• legislation tightening the sale of stolen goods through pawn brokers and second hand goods shops;
• the stolen goods market now must compete with a large online legitimate second hand goods market through eBay and the Trading Post, which perhaps does not offer
the quick turn around or anonymity desirable to most burglars.
A collapse in the stolen goods market is also consistent with the increased desirability to steal cash in break-ins, as it is the only object for which burglars can recoup the full value and do not need to on-sell.

Unlike other electrical goods and tools, laptops remain a frequent target for burglars. One obvious reason for the observed rise in laptop thefts over the last decade is that there are simply more available to steal from residential dwellings. Laptops are now a popular purchase for home use (increasingly replacing PCs) and are often supplied to employees to facilitate working from home. Furthermore, since late 2009 every senior NSW public school student has been given a laptop to use at school and home as part of the Federal Government’s Digital Education Revolution program. This program alone is estimated to have resulted in an additional 130,000 laptops in circulation in NSW.

It is also possible that the second hand market for laptops is stronger than the market for other stolen electrical items. This is because (1) the retail price of laptops (at least for the latest models) has not decreased to the same extent as other electrical devices over the last 10 years and (2) laptops often contain personal and financial information which can be used in the course of other criminal activity such as identity theft and fraud.