'Cost-Benefit Analysis of Australian Federal Police Counter-Terrorism Operations at Australian Airports' (ARC Centre of Excellence in Policing & Security Working Paper 2013) by Mark G. Stewart and John Mueller [
PDF] is a paper that crunches some numbers about security theatre, recommends the standard nostrums of identity imaging (ANPR, cards, CCTV and so forth) and can be read subversively in debunking fashionable hyperbole from particular politicians and agencies.
The authors comment that
The terrorist attacks of 11 September
2001 highlighted the vulnerabilities of
airports and aircraft. Further attacks
in 2002, 2007 and 2009, have led
to major government reforms in
passenger processing and airport
access. The security of Australian
airports has also followed this trend,
with an increased police presence.
However, limited consideration has
been given to the costs of these
measures, compared to benefit. This
Working Paper identifies the factors
to be considered in such cost-benefit
analyses and the authors outline
their preliminary findings. The scope
for further research is highlighted,
particularly in relation to risk analysis
and cost.
The authors state that
Much research on aviation security focuses on airplanes due no doubt to the events
of September 11 2001 and to the more recent attempts to bomb U.S. bound flights
in 2002, 2006 and 2009. However, Elias (2010) notes that an airport has ‘unique
vulnerabilities because it is unsecured’. There is little information about whether airport
security satisfies a cost-benefit assessment, or how airport policing can be made more
effective. The Australian Office of Best Practice Regulation, U.S. Office of Management
and Budget, and other regulatory agencies strongly recommend risk and cost-benefit
assessments of major programmes. A risk and cost-benefit assessment quantifies
risk reduction of security measures, losses from a successful attack, threat likelihood,
probability that attack is successful, and cost of security measures. This allows costs
and benefits of security measures to be compared and optimal security measures to
be selected. This Working Paper seeks to assess the risks and cost-effectiveness of
Australian Federal Police (AFP) airport counter-terrorism (CT) policing designed to
protect airport terminals and aircraft from terrorist attack.
They conclude
If the annual threat probability at all airports in Australia is less
than 1% (or one in a hundred) the BCR [benefit to cost] for airport CT policing
is significantly less than one, and the security measure
consequently fails to be cost-effective by a considerable
margin. However, a threat probability of 50% (or one attack
every two years) would yield a BCR of 15.8 and airport CT
policing would be cost-effective under that condition, and $1
of cost would buy $15.80 in benefits. Table 3 shows that airport
CT policing would also be cost-effective when the annual
threat probability exceeds 5% or one attack every 20 years -
that is, it would have to be solely responsible for deterring,
foiling, or protecting against one threat every twenty years for
the security measures to be cost-effective. It also needs to be
kept in mind that many threats against the aviation industry
would be deterred, foiled or prevented by other (non airport)
police and security measures (as well as by public awareness
and response, etc.). ... The co-benefit of CT airport policing may well exceed $25
million per year, particularly if CT airport policing is able
to utilise number plate recognition capability, passenger
photograph identification and other measures to apprehend
people with outstanding criminal issues. If a security measure
also enhances the passenger experience, there would be an
additional co-benefit, dramatically improving the measure’s
cost-effectiveness. ....
This Working Paper sets out the basic principles of risk and
cost-benefit analysis. These principles are applied to airport
CT policing provided by the AFP. The results are preliminary,
and based on our ‘best estimates’ using publicly sourced
material, and are a starting point for this type of risk analysis.
The preliminary results show the combinations of risk
reduction and threat probability that allow airport CT policing
to be cost-effective. For example, airport CT policing is costeffective
if it reduces risk by approximately 25% and that the
probability of an attack at any airport in Australia exceeds
5% per year. The co-benefits of airport CT policing - such as
reduction in crime and reassurance to the travelling public -
can be considerable, and will dramatically improve the costeffectiveness
of airport CT policing. Further work should
focus on more comprehensive threat scenarios; the layers of
airport security, interactions and interdependencies; analysis
of operational data on effectiveness of airport CT policing; and
improved cost data, including co-benefits. The scope could be
broadened to encompass all airport police, their rates of crime deterrence and prevention, and propose how airport policing
may be made more effective/efficient by the use of other
security measures, for example, number plate recognition
capability and passenger photograph identification ID.
Send policemen, guns and money, in other words ... and stop along the way to follow up the authors' citation of their ‘The Price is Not Right: The U.S. spends too much money to fight terrorism’ in (2011) 58(10)
Playboy 149-150. Personally I preferred Mueller's
Atomic Obsession: Nuclear Alarmism from Hiroshima to Al-Qaeda (Oxford University Press, 2010)