The IEA Electricity 2024: Global trends Analysis and forecast to 2026 report states
Global electricity demand from data centres could double towards 2026
We estimate that data centres, cryptocurrencies, and artificial intelligence (AI) consumed about 460 TWh of electricity worldwide in 2022, almost 2% of total global electricity demand. Data centres are a critical part of the infrastructure that supports digitalisation along with the electricity infrastructure that powers them. The ever-growing quantity of digital data requires an expansion and evolution of data centres to process and store it. Electricity demand in data centres is mainly from two processes, with computing accounting for 40% of electricity demand of a data centre. Cooling requirements to achieve stable processing efficiency similarly makes up about another 40%. The remaining 20% comes from other associated IT equipment.
Future trends of the data centre sector are complex to navigate, as technological advancements and digital services evolve rapidly. Depending on the pace of deployment, range of efficiency improvements as well as artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency trends, we expect global electricity consumption of data centres, cryptocurrencies and artificial intelligence to range between 620-1 050 TWh in 2026, with our base case for demand at just over 800 TWh – up from 460 TWh in 2022. This corresponds to an additional 160 TWh up to 590 TWh of electricity demand in 2026 compared to 2022, roughly equivalent to adding at least one Sweden or at most one Germany. ...
Data centres are significant drivers of electricity demand growth in many regions
There are currently more than 8 000 data centres globally, with about 33% of these located in the United States, 16% in Europe and close to 10% in China. US data centre electricity consumption is expected to grow at a rapid pace in the coming years, increasing from around 200 TWh in 2022 (~4% of US electricity demand), to almost 260 TWh in 2026 to account for 6% of total electricity demand. Growth will be driven by increased adoption of 5G networks and cloud-based services, as well as competitive state tax incentives.
China's State Grid Energy Research Institute expects electricity demand in the country’s data centre sector to double to 400 TWh by 2030, compared to 2020. We forecast electricity consumption from data centres in China to reach around 300 TWh by 2026. Regulations are being updated to promote sustainable practices in current and future data centres to align them with decarbonisation strategies. A major source of data centre growth is expected to come from the rapid expansion of 5G networks and the Internet of Things (IoT).
In the European Union, data centre electricity consumption is estimated at slightly below 100 TWh in 2022, almost 4% of total EU electricity demand. Around 1 240 data centres were operating within Europe in 2022, with the majority concentrated in the financial centres of Frankfurt, London, Amsterdam, Paris, and Dublin. With a significant number of additional data centres planned, as well as new deployments that can be expected to be realised over the coming years, we forecast that electricity consumption in the data centre sector in the European Union will reach almost 150 TWh by 2026.
Almost one-third of electricity demand in Ireland could come from data centres by 2026
In Europe, the data centre market in Ireland is developing rapidly as their electricity consumption grows along with new policies and initiatives. Electricity demand from data centres in Ireland was 5.3 TWh in 2022, representing 17% of the country's total electricity consumed. That is equivalent to the amount of electricity consumed by urban residential buildings. At this pace, in a high case scenario, Ireland’s data centres might double their electricity consumption by 2026, and with AI applications penetrating the market at a fast rate, the sector could reach a share of 32% of the country’s total electricity demand in 2026 if most of the approved projects are able to be connected to the system. This assumes that at the same time efficiency gains in other sectors continue to take place.
Ireland’s stock of data centres, currently at 82, is expected to grow by 65% in the coming years, with 14 data centres under construction and 40 approved to start the building phase. Ireland has one of the lowest corporate tax rates in the European Union (12.5%), which is an advantage for the sector’s expansion in the country. By contrast, European OECD countries’ average corporate tax rate is 21.5%.
The rapid expansion of the data centre sector and the elevated electricity demand can pose challenges for the electricity system. To safeguard the system’s stability and reliability, Ireland’s Commission for Regulation of Utilities published in late 2021 its decision on the new requirements applicable to new and ongoing data centre grid connection applications with three assessment criteria to determine if the connection offer can be made. First, the location of the data centre with respect to whether they are within a constrained region of the electricity system. Second, the ability of the data centre to bring onsite dispatchable generation and/or storage equivalent, at least, to their demand. Third, the ability of the data centre to provide flexibility in their demand by reducing it when requested by a system operator. For the third clause, data centre operators that offer their servers for hire will have to update their contracts to reflect the new regulations. These requirements showcase the local government’s inclination to grant connections to those operators that can make efficient use of the grid and incorporate renewable energy sources with a view of decarbonisation targets. ...
Denmark currently hosts 34 data centres, half of them located in Copenhagen. As in Ireland, Denmark’s total electricity demand is forecast to grow mainly due to the data centre sector’s expansion, which is expected to consume 6 TWh by 2026, reaching just under 20% of the country’s electricity demand. Denmark is the hub for a new pan-European initiative, Net Zero Innovation Hub for Data Centers. The hub offers a space for collaboration between suppliers, operators and governments to enable progress towards the sector’s innovation and decarbonisation while meeting increasing regulatory demands.
Data centres in Nordic countries – such as Sweden, Norway, and Finland – benefit from lower electricity costs. This is attributed to lower cooling demand due to their colder weather, and to lower electricity prices in comparison to other major data centre hubs, such as Germany, France and the Netherlands. The largest actor amongst Nordic countries is Sweden, with 60 data centres, and half of them in Stockholm. In August 2023, plans for a nuclear-powered data centre were announced utilising small modular reactors (SMR) technology on the east coast of Sweden, with a commissioning date envisaged for 2030. Given decarbonisation targets, Sweden and Norway may further increase their participation in the data centre market since almost all of their electricity is generated from low-carbon sources.
In the United States, the largest data centre hubs are located in California, Texas and Virginia. In the case of Virginia, their economy was dominated in 2021 by the data centre sector expansion, attracting 62% of all of the state’s new investments and providing more than 5 000 new jobs. Northern Virginia is the largest data centre market in the country, collecting USD 1 billion in local tax revenues per year, with growth trending higher as companies, such as Amazon’s planned USD 35 billion expansion by 2040, continue to increase their investment in the state. New legislation is aimed at tightening regulations on data centre developments, including zoning rules, mandatory environment and resource impact assessments, as well as guidelines on water usage. In US northeastern states, the regional transmission organisation PJM expects data centres to increasingly drive electricity demand, forecasting a rise in summer peak load from 151 GW in 2024 to 178 GW by 2034.
Artificial intelligence and cryptocurrencies are additional sources of electricity demand growth
Market trends, including the fast incorporation of AI into software programming across a variety of sectors, increase the overall electricity demand of data centres. Search tools like Google could see a tenfold increase of their electricity demand in the case of fully implementing AI in it. When comparing the average electricity demand of a typical Google search (0.3 Wh of electricity) to OpenAI’s ChatGPT (2.9 Wh per request), and considering 9 billion searches daily, this would require almost 10 TWh of additional electricity in a year.
AI electricity demand can be forecast more comprehensively based on the amount of AI servers that are estimated to be sold in the future and their rated power. The AI server market is currently dominated by tech firm NVIDIA, with an estimated 95% market share. In 2023, NVIDIA shipped 100 000 units that consume an average of 7.3 TWh of electricity annually. By 2026, the AI industry is expected to have grown exponentially to consume at least ten times its demand in 2023. ...
In 2022, cryptocurrencies consumed about 110 TWh of electricity, accounting for 0.4% of the global annual electricity demand, as much as the Netherland’s total electricity consumption. In our base case, we anticipate that the electricity consumption of cryptocurrencies will increase by more than 40%, to around 160 TWh by 2026. Nevertheless, uncertainties remain for the pace of acceleration in cryptocurrency adoption and technology efficiency improvements. Ethereum, the second largest cryptocurrency by market cap, reduced its electricity demand by an amazing 99% in 2022 by changing its mining mechanism. By contrast, Bitcoin is estimated to have consumed 120 TWh by 2023, contributing to a total cryptocurrency electricity demand of 130 TWh. Challenges in reducing electricity consumption remain, as energy savings can be offset by increases in other energy consuming operations, such as other cryptocurrencies, even as some become more efficient.
Efficiency improvements and regulations will be crucial in restraining data centre energy consumption
The revised Energy Efficiency Directive from the European Commission includes regulations applicable to the European data centre sector, promoting more transparency and accountability to enhance electricity demand management. Starting from 2024, operators have mandatory reporting obligations for the energy use and emissions from their data centres, and large-scale data centres are required to have waste heat recovery applications, when technically and economically feasible, while meeting climate neutrality by 2030. An earlier EU regulation, applicable since 2020, sets efficiency standards for data centres enabling better control over their environmental impact. A self-regulatory European initiative created in 2021, called the Climate Neutral Data Centre Pact, sets targets to achieve climate neutrality in the sector by 2030. More than 60 data centre operators have signed on to the pact, including large operators like Equinix, Digital Realty and Cyrus One.
In the United States, the Energy Act of 2020 requires the federal government to conduct studies on the energy and water use of data centres, to create applicable energy efficiency metrics and good practices that promote efficiency, along with public reporting of historical data centre energy and water usage. The Department of Energy (DOE) is supporting the local production of semiconductors and is funding the development of more efficient semiconductors over the next two decades. More efficient semiconductors reduce cooling requirements, thus supporting the decarbonisation of the sector. At a state level, regulators in Virginia and Oregon have already imposed requirements for better sustainability practices and carbon emissions reductions.
Chinese regulators will require all data centres acquired by public organisations to improve their energy efficiency and be entirely powered by renewable energy by 2032, starting with a 5% share mandate for renewables in 2023.
New fields of research can help increase efficiency and reduce energy consumption in data centres
The primary drivers of data centre electricity demand are the cooling systems and the servers themselves, with each typically accounting for 40% of the total consumption. The remaining 20% is consumed by the power supply system, storage devices and communication equipment. The adoption of high-efficiency cooling systems has the potential to reduce electricity demand in data centres by 10%. Other cooling research shows that a 20% reduction in consumption can be achieved when operating with direct-to-chip water cooling and specific low viscous fluids to cool all other components. Machine learning can help reduce the electricity demand of servers by optimizing their adaptability to different operating scenarios. Google reported using its DeepMind AI to reduce the electricity demand of their data centre cooling systems by 40%.
In the long term, replacing supercomputers with quantum computers could reduce electricity demand of the sector if the transition is supported by efficient cooling systems. Quantum computers deliver more and faster processing power than supercomputers while consuming less energy, but they need to be cooled to temperatures near absolute zero (-273°C) while supercomputers can operate at 21°C.
Data centres are evolving towards more sustainable and efficient operations, including transitioning to Hyperscale Data Centres, which can run large-scale operations without a significant increase in electricity consumption. This transition is also financially attractive, with the global market for Hyperscale Data Centres projected to double in size by 2026 compared to 2023, reaching a value of USD 212 billion.
Another promising field of research for decarbonising data centre operations involves time and location shifting of electricity demand. Software developments can allow operators to temporarily shift power loads with carbon-aware models that relocate data centre workloads to regions with lower carbon intensity at selected times. Simultaneously, such methodology has shown the probability of increasing the operational affordability by reducing costs of consuming low- emissions energy around the clock by up to 34%. Results of this methodology combined with other energy efficiency measures in place and on-site low-emission energy production have demonstrated that data centres can achieve a 64% share of carbon-free energy in their total electricity consumption, according to Google’s 2023 Environmental Report.